[TEST] 1.3: Developer Growth Is Limited By Generational Factors And Short Careers.

There are other generational factors that limit the growth of talent within our industry including STEM education, gender discrimination and fair pay, societal pressures, and the strain felt from seasoned technologists who maintain near continuous upskilling to keep pace with the change of technology.

1.3.1: Bottoms Up Analysis Suggests That Rate Of Growth Is 1.5M New Professional Developers Per Year.

The rate of growth of developers may be much less than Slashdata speculates is happening. About 400,000 computer science students graduate each year globally. There is probably another 400,000 students from computer engineering, electrical engineering, mathematics, and social sciences (you’d be surprised at how many psychology majors are developers!) that transition into development. Coding boot camps produce another 100,000 graduates. And assuming self-taught and hobbyists show up, you can estimate that new paid developers is 1M —> 1.5M per year.

1.3.2: Developer Attrition And Burnout Reduce Professional Developer Population By 200K.

Due to cultural conflicts, the constant pace of change, and continuous upskilling required, many developers experience burnout or shift careers. What is the average career of a developer?

Assuming that people of all age groups are willing to participate in surveys and that there is no data bias, if StackOverflow represents the general developer population, then it looks like 30% of professional developers are older than 35 years.

This would suggest a career lifespan of 15-20 years, which implies the attrition rate of professional developers is ~200K. Nnamdi, a partner at LSVP, has confirmed this in an alternative way in his article, “There Will Never Be Enough Developers” where he says that 30% of engineering and computer science graduates drop out of their field by mid-career. This is attributed to the constant re-training and skill up leveling required.

This rate of attrition certainly poses challenges for the world to increase and sustain the base of developers that exist.

For the rate of growth of developers to reliably exceed 1.5M / year, the attrition rates need to decline and the number of new paid developer positions must exceed 2M. The labor statistics data don’t currently support that this dynamic is playing out.